德国称中国有五大理由不怕与美国打贸易战

 时间:2016-11-18 10:17:44 来源:犀利哥哥新闻网

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   作者: 小欣

  德国《明镜》周刊11月16日文章,原题:中国为什么不害怕贸易战 特朗普上台后,可能将中国列为汇率操纵国,并对中国商品课以高关税。但中国领导人似乎不为所动。为何北京对与美国可能发生的贸易战如此淡定?
  
  首先,中国已习惯了美国的威胁。自中国加入世贸组织后,美国大选就一直打中国牌。结果却是,中美贸易稳步增长。1990年至2015年,美国对华直接投资累计金额达2280亿美元,是中国对美国投资的3倍多。
    
  其次,中国也会对贸易伙伴发出战争威胁。今年6月,当欧盟考虑否认中国市场经济地位时,中国官媒警告,若欧盟不履行承诺,将面临一场贸易战。
  
  第三,中国已变得足够强大。在美国也能感受到中国的自信。一些数字令人印象深刻:未来20年波音公司将获得中国的5000架订单。苹果公司2015年在华售出6900万部iPhone。对于星巴克和麦当劳等众多美国餐饮企业,中国也变得愈加重要。
    
  第四,中国的地缘战略处于有利地位。欧洲因英国脱欧和难民危机处于困境。俄罗斯和中东国家因油价下跌经济受损。从东欧到拉美,中国领导人出访却总是受到欢迎。
  
  第五,特朗普威胁正好符合中国的伟大计划。特朗普要提高中国商品关税。这看似威胁,却可以促进中国经济转型。

相关TAG:贸易战德国美国 责任编辑:何震 分享中国男子11天穿越越南艳遇之旅 赵本山弟子行跪真相:看后不敢相信 中南海保镖自曝一人打到20人很正常

  特朗普当选是北京胜利 看美网友热评很惊人

  The election of Donald Trump will be a disaster for anyone who cares about human rights, U.S. global leadership, and media freedom. That means it’s a victory for Beijing, where as I write, the Chinese leaders near me in the palatial complex of Zhongnanhai are surely cracking open the drinks and making mean jokes.
  
  特朗普的当选对于每个关注人权,重视美国国际关系和媒体自由的人而言是场灾难。这是北京的胜利,在我执笔之时,离我不远的高官们想必此时正在中南海的华丽建筑里举杯相庆,说着玩笑话。
    
  There are four major victories for the Chinese leadership here, tempered by one possible fear. The first victory is the obvious one, the geopolitical victory; China no longer faces the prospect of Hillary Clinton, a tough, experienced opponent with a record of standing up to bullies. Instead, it faces a know-nothing reality TV star who barely seems aware that China has nuclear weapons, has promised to extort money from U.S. allies around China like South Korea and Japan, and has repeatedly undercut U.S. credibility as a defense partner. Trump is also exactly the kind of businessman who is most easily taken in by China credulous, focused on the externalities of wealth, and massively susceptible to flattery. A single trip, with Chinese laying on the charm, could leave him as fond of China’s strongmen as he is of Russia’s Putin.
  
  对于北京的中央领导而言,特朗普当选,他们在四个方面获得了胜利,同时也在一点上有疑虑。第一个胜利最明显,是地缘上的胜利,中国避开了雄心壮志的希拉里,她可是个经验老道的硬骨头,在打击敌人方面可谓战功赫赫。
    
  取而代之的是活在虚幻中的电视明星,几乎不知道中国有核武,还言之凿凿地要向中国周边的美国盟友们(韩国日本)收保护费,作为防卫伙伴,美国的信誉都被特朗普扔到太平洋去了。
  
  特朗普就是那种典型的最容易对中国掉以轻心商人--轻信,贪财,爱听恭维话。中国魅力大增,特朗普会像欣赏普金一样在欣赏中国的强权的道路上一去不回。 相关TAG:贸易战德国美国 责任编辑:何震 分享中国男子11天穿越越南艳遇之旅 赵本山弟子行跪真相:看后不敢相信 中南海保镖自曝一人打到20人很正常
  
  Countries like Vietnam, Myanmar, and the Philippines, uncertain about who to back in the contest for power in the Pacific, will swing massively China’s way, preferring a country that keeps its promises to one that can turn on the pull of an electoral lever. The strongest U.S. allies, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, no longer confident in the U.S. nuclear umbrella, will begin seriously considering other alternatives like acquiring their own nuclear deterrent, prompting new tensions with China.
  
  像越南缅甸菲律宾这类国家,面对太平洋强权国家立场不定,很容易倒向中国。毕竟谁都会选择能贯彻承诺的一方,而不是因为选举掉链子的那边。
  
  而最坚定的盟友们,台湾,韩国,和日本,对于美国的核保护也信心不足,开始认真考虑别的路径,比如自身寻求核威慑来给中国施压。
    
  Generally, these developments will only embolden China. After the 2008 financial crisis, Beijing was convinced the world was going its way, resulting in a spate of overconfident military moves in southeast Asia which pushed some countries more firmly into the U.S. camp. Now China’s confidence will return, and few in the region will have confidence in Washington’s ability to provide shelter from China’s nascent hegemony. Taiwan, already facing tough mainland rhetoric after electing anti-Beijing leader Tsai Ing-wen, will feel completely isolated and perhaps be vulnerable to actual invasion without the firm promise of U.S. protection.
  
  总的来说事态的发展会助长中国的气焰。自08年金融危机后,中国坚信已经迎来自己的时代,于是自负地在南海进行了一系列军事扩张,导致该地区国家坚定地站到美国的阵营之中。
  
  现在中国又信心回归,而这些国家却对美国在该地区的庇护能力不太抱希望了。台湾在台独领导人蔡英文当选之后一直面对着来自北京的施压,没有了美国的保护,台湾会觉得彻底孤立,要是真有侵略也会不堪一击。
    
  The second victory is in the contest between authoritarianism and democracy. From a Chinese point of view, an electoral system that produces somebody like Trump utterly inexperienced in governance but a skilled demagogue is an absurdity, the equivalent of picking a major company’s CEO through a horse race. In China, leaders need to be carefully chosen, groomed, and pushed, gaining experience at every level of the Communist Party system before being anointed for the top job. (That comes amid a flurry of brutally nasty and corrupt internal struggles at each level, mind you.)
  
  第二个胜利,是独裁对民主的胜利。在中国人看来,民主选举太荒唐了,居然能选出特朗普这种货色,政治经验白纸一张,煽动群众倒很是有一手,这是给大公司赛马选总裁么?
  
  中国的领导人都是仔细挑选,千锤百炼,层层晋升,经过每个等级的拼杀一步步登上权力的顶峰,一将功成万骨枯,所以,你懂的,他们背后都是所有层级的肮脏腐败的政治斗争。 相关TAG:贸易战德国美国 责任编辑:何震 分享中国男子11天穿越越南艳遇之旅 赵本山弟子行跪真相:看后不敢相信 中南海保镖自曝一人打到20人很正常
  
  China aspires toward the Singaporean model of carefully controlled elitism, a country in which Trump represents, in the words of one writer, everything they were taught to fear about democracy. The crudity of Trump’s triumphant campaign gives credence to Chinese media’s criticisms of a chaotic political farce. The likely split between the popular vote and the Electoral College will only further the often-made case that U.S. democracy is a sham.
  
  中国向往新加坡严密把控的精英主义,新加坡也是特朗普尊崇的一个国家,一个作家写道,在这里他们学到的一些都是关于畏惧民主的。
  
  特朗普的胜利正好验证了中国媒体对美国选举的评价一场混乱的政治闹剧。普选和选举团之间的分歧,只会进一步说明美国选举是个骗局。
    
  Trump himself has given every sign of governing like the authoritarian leaders China has favored from Myanmar to Zimbabwe. Every piece of paranoid security theater he has threatened, from a ban on Muslim immigration to the wall with Mexico, will be used by Beijing to justify its own myriad oppressions.
  
  特朗普自己全身都在释放一个信号,他的统治会带有独裁风格,就像中国从缅甸津巴布韦领导人身上乐见的。特朗普的各种偏执的安全威胁,禁止穆斯林移民,在美墨边境造长城什么的,每一

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